The paradox, stated properly
If you judged football clubs the way you would judge any other company, almost nobody would buy one. The industry spends nearly every euro it earns on wages, and much of the rest on transfer fees. Profits are rare, irregular and usually come from selling players. Dividends are close to non-existent. A club that tried to pay its owner a return every year would be spending money that its rivals are putting into their squads, and would soon stop winning.
A fund knows all this before it signs. The reason it buys anyway is that its return does not come from the annual accounts. It comes from the difference between the price paid on the way in and the price received on the way out.
Football is not bought as an income-producing business. It is bought as an asset expected to appreciate — closer to a building in a prime location than to a factory.
Which raises the real question: why should that asset keep appreciating?
Five reasons a club gains value
Three come from the market, two from the buyer.
What drives the price up
What the buyer brings
Of the five, the valuation gap deserves a moment, because it explains the nationality of most of the buyers. An American investor who has watched NFL and NBA franchises multiply in value over two decades looks at a European club and sees a similar product, with a global audience, trading at half the multiple. The bet is not that the club will become profitable. It is that the market will eventually price it more like an American franchise.
There is a structural reason to be careful with that comparison. American leagues are closed, with no relegation, a salary cap and revenue shared equally — the model described in the piece on how clubs make money. Their franchises are valuable precisely because they cannot fail sportingly. A European club can be relegated, and its value can halve in a single afternoon in May. Part of the valuation gap is not a mispricing. It is the price of that risk.
How a fund makes its return
Put those drivers together and the logic of a fund's investment looks like the bridge below. The figures are illustrative, but the mechanics are the ones every buyer models before bidding.
How a fund makes its return
Illustrative figures, € billions. The annual profit or loss of the club does not appear anywhere in the bridge.
Half the gain comes from the club growing, half from the market paying more for the same revenue. The second half is the one the fund does not control, and the one most buyers are counting on.
Notice what is missing. There is no bar for annual profit, because there usually isn't one. Losses along the way are simply added to the cost of entry — which is why a club that loses €30m a year for six years needs its exit price to rise by considerably more than the headline numbers suggest just to break even.
Three ways in
Funds do not all buy clubs in the same way. The structure they choose says a great deal about the risk they are willing to carry.
Buying control
The most visible route. Clearlake's consortium paid £4.25bn for Chelsea in 2022. RedBird bought AC Milan the same year for €1.2bn. In March 2026, Apollo completed the purchase of a majority stake in Atlético Madrid, in a deal valuing the club at around €2.5bn including debt — with the club's planned sports city around its stadium placed at the centre of the thesis. Control means the fund owns the upside and the losses, and has to fund both.
Buying a minority stake
A quieter route with a better risk profile. Arctos took 12.5% of Paris Saint-Germain in 2023. Minority investors get exposure to the club's rising value without running it, without funding its deficits beyond their share, and usually with contractual rights on the eventual exit. They are betting on the asset, not on themselves.
Lending
The least glamorous route, and historically one of the most profitable. A fund lends to an owner who needs cash, secured on the club. If the loan is repaid, the fund earns a high interest rate. If it is not, the fund takes the club.
Worked example — two Milan clubs, one playbook
Both of Milan's clubs changed hands the same way: a Chinese owner borrowed from an American fund, could not repay, and the fund ended up owning the club.
| When | What happened |
|---|---|
| AC Milan, 2018 | Elliott takes control after its borrower defaults, then sells to RedBird in 2022 for €1.2bn. |
| Inter, 2021 | Oaktree lends €275m to the Zhang family's Suning group during the pandemic. |
| Inter, May 2024 | With around €395m due and unpaid, Oaktree takes ownership of the club. |
The lender in both cases entered at the most defensive point of the capital structure — ahead of the owner, with the club as collateral — and ended with the most valuable asset. Not a passion to own, but a risk to be priced and secured.
Or skipping the clubs entirely
A fourth route avoids the sporting risk altogether: buying into the league rather than a club. CVC's deals with LaLiga and France's LFP, and the stake Serie A is now trying to sell in its international media business, give investors a share of every club's broadcast income without any exposure to relegation. It is the same logic as lending — take the income, avoid the pitch.
What can go wrong
The funds that do well in football are the ones who remember that sport is the only industry in which the product can be relegated.
What can go wrong
Sport is the only industry in which the product can be relegated.
Risks a fund can model
Risks it tends to underrate
The collapse of 777 Partners is the cautionary example the whole industry now cites. Between 2021 and 2023, the American firm assembled stakes in Genoa, Standard Liège, Red Star, Vasco da Gama, Hertha Berlin and others, and agreed to buy Everton. The Everton deal fell apart in 2024 as the firm's finances unravelled, its UK entity was declared bankrupt that October, and its clubs were left looking for new owners mid-season. Its co-founder has since been indicted in the United States on fraud charges. Few investors were as reckless — but every club in that portfolio learned the same lesson: the owner's balance sheet is part of the club's risk, whether the club chose it or not.
The tension worth watching
A fund must eventually sell. A club never ends. For now the two timetables are compatible, because valuations keep rising and there is always a larger buyer waiting. The real test will come when a generation of funds that bought between 2022 and 2026 all try to exit at once — and discover how many buyers are really prepared to pay a higher multiple for an asset that can still be relegated.
